For three very important and beautiful words:
BRING
ON
DETROIT
Congratulations on your seventeenth NL pennant, Saint Louis Cardinals. Now go win the World Series.
GO CARDS!
10.19.2006
Talk About Cut and Run!
OK, so the Times piece today (another Nagourney winner http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/19/us/politics/19campaign.html?hp&ex=1161316800&en=dd5585cc01a8e36c&ei=5094&partner=homepage) points to an interesting development that makes me think for the first time the GOP might lose both chambers.
The GOP has long been a 'stay the course' organization when campaigning: pick a message, stay on it. But now Republican candidates for Congress are changing their tactics and backing off of Iraq. It's almost all over now, Baby Blue (apologies to Dylan), because it's simply too late to get a new message into peoples' heads. And the Democrats are doing their best to remind people of the Bush-My Incumbent Republican Congressman connection (search campaign ads 2006 on YouTube and you'll get it) that reminds them of . . . Iraq!
I haven't seen the GOP in this much of a dithering state since 1992. And we all know what a winner that was for the Republicans. Oh, wait .. . it wasn't.
I think November 7th's going to be a long night for a lot of people on First Street.
The GOP has long been a 'stay the course' organization when campaigning: pick a message, stay on it. But now Republican candidates for Congress are changing their tactics and backing off of Iraq. It's almost all over now, Baby Blue (apologies to Dylan), because it's simply too late to get a new message into peoples' heads. And the Democrats are doing their best to remind people of the Bush-My Incumbent Republican Congressman connection (search campaign ads 2006 on YouTube and you'll get it) that reminds them of . . . Iraq!
I haven't seen the GOP in this much of a dithering state since 1992. And we all know what a winner that was for the Republicans. Oh, wait .. . it wasn't.
I think November 7th's going to be a long night for a lot of people on First Street.
10.16.2006
Stay On Target . . . Stay On Target
Today's Times has a very strong piece on GOP targeting (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/16/us/politics/16spend.html?hp&ex=1161057600&en=4ab375783b7dff54&ei=5094&partner=homepage). No surprise there, it's Adam Nagourney's writing, who seems to have a good handle on the process of campaigning.
The GOP is doing their traditional last-minute concentration of resources into selected races, and it will probably pay off. In the last three cycles, the GOP's candidates have had more success than their Democratic rivals and this partly has to do with the wise shifting of resources late in the campaign. Their success also has to do with a strong financial advantage that lets the GOP target from a position of strength.
But this year is different. With the Ney, DeLay, and Foley resignations, plus a few challenged Republican incumbents (Jack Ryun, Chris Chocola, John Sweeney for example) means that the GOP has enough exposure to worry about a Democratic takeover. And oh yeah, the Senate is ALWAYS in play. So the GOP is having to adapt to a new problem: targeting from a position of weakness. The GOP has the money, but they have more races where they are unsure than they have of late. So now the NRCC and NRSC appear to be dithering. The move of money from Ohio to Missouri is pretty smart, though I'd write Tennessee off and put more into Virginia, where George Allen is saveable despite Webb's Allen-empowered surge. It wouldn't surprise me to see the GOP's success rate of targeted races drop this year.
These elections, which looked to be a snoozer in March, are getting VERY interesting.
The GOP is doing their traditional last-minute concentration of resources into selected races, and it will probably pay off. In the last three cycles, the GOP's candidates have had more success than their Democratic rivals and this partly has to do with the wise shifting of resources late in the campaign. Their success also has to do with a strong financial advantage that lets the GOP target from a position of strength.
But this year is different. With the Ney, DeLay, and Foley resignations, plus a few challenged Republican incumbents (Jack Ryun, Chris Chocola, John Sweeney for example) means that the GOP has enough exposure to worry about a Democratic takeover. And oh yeah, the Senate is ALWAYS in play. So the GOP is having to adapt to a new problem: targeting from a position of weakness. The GOP has the money, but they have more races where they are unsure than they have of late. So now the NRCC and NRSC appear to be dithering. The move of money from Ohio to Missouri is pretty smart, though I'd write Tennessee off and put more into Virginia, where George Allen is saveable despite Webb's Allen-empowered surge. It wouldn't surprise me to see the GOP's success rate of targeted races drop this year.
These elections, which looked to be a snoozer in March, are getting VERY interesting.
10.14.2006
Repeat after me . . .the sky is NOT falling
So today started out as a lovely fall day in Hays America. Cleaned up, had some scones from Augustine's, took the dog for a walk, mowed the grass for hopefully the last time this year. And then I had to sit down and watch my beloved alma mater play like one-legged men at an ass kicking contest. Texas A&M 25, Missouri 19. So much for our ranking and any hope of a BCS bid (which was probably a pipe dream anyway, but I'm feeling like it's time to wallow in my own crapulence right now) but I'm now worried that our 6-1 start will turn into 6-6.
Hopefully Carl Edwards will win at Lowe's tonight and the Cards will go up 2-1 to restore sporting equilibrium to my fractured soul.
Hopefully Carl Edwards will win at Lowe's tonight and the Cards will go up 2-1 to restore sporting equilibrium to my fractured soul.
Now I've Seen Everything!
OK, I'll admit to being biased against polling done by local media. When I lived near Saint Louis, the Post-Dispatch earned its reputation as the Post-Disgrace primarily through an inept polling unit. So imagine my suprise when I get a phone survey tonight from an area TV station that was actually written by a human being who knows something about survey research. KBSH-TV in Wichita was the sponsoring entity, and rather than doing it in-house they obviously spent the money to contract with a professional polling entity. I'd rather see that than try to do it in-house and fail. Of course, they should've just contacted the Docking Institute at FHSU.
10.13.2006
Donnybrooks and Shockwaves
Today's Times has a piece on Bob Ney's guilty plea in connection with the Abramoff investigation and Ney's resignation from the House. Since I've been following the Abramoff donnybrook pretty closely, it gets me thinking:
1) I remember vividly some bloggers saying that the "Republican Spin Machine" would bury the Abramoff scandal and that their conspiratorial efforts would mean nobody would remember all of the misdeeds done by Abramoff's contacts in Congress. I wonder what they're thinking now. The Abramoff investigation has already brought down a couple of Republicans and two or three more may follow.
2) When I gave a Times Talk (http://vodreal.fhsu.edu/ramgen/ctelt/adp/timestalk27.rm) {Real Player needed} on the Abramoff affair, a colleague suggested that Abramoff, Delay, and their ilk were the first people to play this corrupt little game. Bull. This kind of thing has been going on since the beginning of the republic (see Sabato's Dirty Little Secrets for a nice rundown of scandals in American politics) and now the difference is with federal campaign finance disclosure we can track it down and punish the people who do it. I've never been a fan of campaign finance limits, but disclosure's one of the best things that's happened in a while.
3) The effect on the November elections. In April, the thought that Democrats might take over the House of Representatives was as likely as the Yankees getting drop-kicked in the ALDS. Now one's happened and the other one is at least in the realm of possibility. DeLay, Ney, Foley, and other retirements from the House mean that there are a number of Republican seats exposed to competition. If all the open seats go Democratic and just a few incumbent Republicans lose, the House could narrowly switch control. I still don't think it will happen, but it will be close and I wouldn't die of surprise if it did.
1) I remember vividly some bloggers saying that the "Republican Spin Machine" would bury the Abramoff scandal and that their conspiratorial efforts would mean nobody would remember all of the misdeeds done by Abramoff's contacts in Congress. I wonder what they're thinking now. The Abramoff investigation has already brought down a couple of Republicans and two or three more may follow.
2) When I gave a Times Talk (http://vodreal.fhsu.edu/ramgen/ctelt/adp/timestalk27.rm) {Real Player needed} on the Abramoff affair, a colleague suggested that Abramoff, Delay, and their ilk were the first people to play this corrupt little game. Bull. This kind of thing has been going on since the beginning of the republic (see Sabato's Dirty Little Secrets for a nice rundown of scandals in American politics) and now the difference is with federal campaign finance disclosure we can track it down and punish the people who do it. I've never been a fan of campaign finance limits, but disclosure's one of the best things that's happened in a while.
3) The effect on the November elections. In April, the thought that Democrats might take over the House of Representatives was as likely as the Yankees getting drop-kicked in the ALDS. Now one's happened and the other one is at least in the realm of possibility. DeLay, Ney, Foley, and other retirements from the House mean that there are a number of Republican seats exposed to competition. If all the open seats go Democratic and just a few incumbent Republicans lose, the House could narrowly switch control. I still don't think it will happen, but it will be close and I wouldn't die of surprise if it did.
10.12.2006
Why Am I Here?
No, this isn't Admiral Stockdale from 1992, asking why he was present at the ping-pong match debate between Dan Quayle and Al Gore. Welcome to the blog of Political Science Professor Chapman Rackaway, Fort Hays State University.
Most of my blogging will relate to articles from the New York Times, as a template for my Political Communication and American Government classes. But I might just post other stuff, too. Or I might get kidnapped by aliens. Anything is possible, after all.
Most of my blogging will relate to articles from the New York Times, as a template for my Political Communication and American Government classes. But I might just post other stuff, too. Or I might get kidnapped by aliens. Anything is possible, after all.
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