Speculative!

One of my great peeves with the mainstream press is their love of the speculative piece. This New York Times article is a prime example. The article is a reaction piece to Karl Rove's recent statement that Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic nominee for President in 2008.

On its own, that's a story. But the meat of the story, though, is about the reaction to it on behalf of John Edwards' peripatetic campaign manager Joe Trippi. Now the focus of the story shifts to whether Rove was trying to sabotage Mrs. Clinton or trying to ensure she would be the nominee by rallying Democrats around her.

However, there's no other substance to the story. We don't know Rove's motivation, nor do we know if his words matter enough to Democrats to move them one way or another. So really, what's the point?

Internal Partisan Blogger Wars

What a mess this could turn out to be. The Politico reports here that OpenLeft.com is actively trying to encourage primary challengers against what the blog's operator calls "Bush Dog" Democrats. Apparently "Bush Dogs" are Democrats in Congress who sided with President Bush on Iraq.

The blogosphere defintely has the potential to shape the political agenda, but I'm not convinced this is the healthiest way to do so. This blogger is basically stepping into the role of a party committee. By encouraging candidates to run and then committing resources (publicity in this case instead of money) to them, the blog becomes a quasi-party. But if everyone can do this, suddenly the party fractures into a million self-interested hacks and no candidate can possibly have a mandate from his or her partisans.

The other factor of concern here is that these "Bush Dog" Democrats tend to be sincere moderates in sincerely moderate districts. The kind of districts that would vote Republican in November if the Democratic nominee's agenda went too far to the left. Dangerous for the Democrats, very dangerous.

Thompson's Eleventh Hour

Fred Thompson is the default leader in the GOP race for the presidency, that much is clear. No other candidate can unite the Republicans as Thompson can, and no other candidate from the party can even compete with the Democrats running right now. Thompson is the only candidate who can overcome the GOP's Charisma Gap.

But the only problem is . . . Thompson hasn't officially announced his candidacy yet. Primaries are just about six months away, meaning that filing deadlines in a number of states will hit in October. So Thompson has to raise money, but also get signatures on petitions. As this Washington Post article states, Thompson's expected September announcement leaves him precious little time to get signatures.

So as Thompson has wanted to avoid scrutiny and play above the political game, his non-candidacy is starting to become a liability. Thompson needs to announce or back off if the GOP has any chance in 2008.