So, Would Edwards/Kerry '04 Have Won?

Check out this Washington Post article.

Here's why the 2006 elections don't necessarily translate into a great Democratic year in 2008: they don't have the horses for the courses. Kerry finished DEAD LAST among Democrats in a feeling thermometer rating of likability. Now, anyone who watched his charisma-free 2004 presidential campaign would know that Kerry is a likable as avian flu, so it isn't much of a surprise. In fact, I think a flipped ticket in 2004 would have come closer to Bush or tied like 2000. Also interesting that the poll was conducted before Kerry's hoof-in-mouth moment over the less educated getting 'stuck in Iraq'. Pretty much everyone knows Kerry is a jerk now. So memo to the Senator: stay home in '08. You've done enough damage to your party.
Then again, it might not have been good to have a young 'un at the helm in 2004. Edwards was probably too inexperienced to win it, and the lesson from Edwards goes to the New Democratic Heartthrob (NDH) Barack Obama. Oprah has practically soiled herself trying to get this guy to run, but guess what? Nobody knows who he is! 41% of respondents didn't know enough about the guy to register an opinion. Plus, Kerry taught us that the Senate is a terrible place to make a run from because your voting record can be used against you just as it can be something to run on. Give Obama another few years, let him run for governor of Illinois, serve a term or two, and THEN run. The guy's got time to run in the future after he builds a more national profile. He'll be a much better candidate in 2016 or 2020 and he will still be in his 50's.

Two other things ought to give the Dems pause right now: Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Joe Freakin' Lieberman came in ahead of their putative nominee, Hillary Clinton. Bill Clinton is still more popular than her, for what that's worth. In other words, the Democratic pool is filled with inexperience and churlishness. Maybe McCain and Lieberman ought to run as an Independent ticket. . ..

Student Body Left!

Plenty of moderate Democrats won seats in Congress. Narrow victories for most anyone. The most liberal issues anyone ran on was an Iraq exit. So with a mandate to the middle, wouldn't you think Speaker-Elect Pelosi would heed the warnings? No, she's a Democrat. And Democrats just refuse to do what would help them long term: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/washingtondc/la-na-dems12nov12,0,4533842.story?track=mostviewed-sectionfront

Despite a declining base of numbers and power, the unions (trial lawyers were conveniently left out of this LA Times piece) will have a significant presence and shift the agenda to the left. Abortion (where was this issue in the '06 campaigns?) will also be a pet project. The Pelosi Saturday Night Live opening skit this past weekend may end up being more prescient than satire. I wonder how many moderate Republicans are going to have some serious buyer's remose next January.

Conveniently, the effects should start right about six months before the 2008 elections. Someone remind me how this party won in the first place . . . . .

Got One Call Right!

At least I knew Rumsfeld wasn't the only one going down. I had a feeling Ken Mehlmann was on his way out at the RNC. And here he goes: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/09/AR2006110901815.html

Mehlmann is great at Presidential politics and the RNC is going to miss him. The one who really needs to fall on his sword for this one is Tom Davis of Virginia, the NRCC chair. He's the one who let the "GOP farm team" that Gingrich, Paxton, and DeLay built in the 1980's get thin. No good Republican replacements since 1994 meant a steadily dwindling GOP advantage in House seats that is paying off for the Dems now. But Davis seems popular and probably won't exit.

But why do I have a feeling John Bolton's not long for the road?

One Order of "Wrong!" with a side of bacon, please

Well, there goes those predictions! Like most of us who wrote predictively about the 2006 midterms, I was wrong and dead wrong.

For what it's worth, divided government is usually a very good thing so the prospect of a Democratic Congress against a Republican President means two delightful years of gridlock ahead!

Now things are getting VERY interesting. And Rumsfeld will NOT be the only casualty of these midterms.

Bold Cold Medicine Induced Predictions

Wow, is it election eve already? Must be, because the Daily Show is on full-cynical ahead!

Now that the flu is past, I'm back reading everyone's predictions. Chris Bowers sees a split Senate and a 23-29 seat House pickup. I just don't see it. Note that his method is a probability model based on the different likelihood tiers, but I've never found those as reliable methods. Take the top fifty races and look at them instead. If national trends determined Congressional elections, the probability model might work. But it doesn't. Tom DeLay's seat is going Democratic for different reasons than Sherwood Boehlert's old district is going to be represented by Mike Arcuri. That's not probabilistic, that's an individualistic model.

Radley Balko thinks the Dems will have a 20-25 seat advantage in the House with a 51-49 Senate for the GOP. The mighty mighty Gooch has Republicans holding the House by two seats and the Senate is 53-47 Republican.

But what in the world do I think? Somewhere between the two above. So here goes.

House:
Dems pick up the following seats: AZ 5, 8; CA 11; FL 13, 16; IL 6; IN 2, 8; IA 1; NY 24; OH 2, 15, 18; PA 7, 10. That's a fifteen-seat pickup for the Dems.
Republicans picking up one seat: GA 12.
The result, Republicans maintain the House . . . by a single seat.

Senate:
Pennsylvania. Santorum is going down and going down big. Score one for the Dems.
Minnesota. I remember when Mark Kennedy first ran for the House and wasn't even targeted by the GOP. He won then, but I don't see it happening now. And to make it worse, he's losing to someone named "Klobuchar." Yikes. Dems plus two.
Washington. Maria Cantwell keeps her seat. No change.
Michigan. Debbie Stabenow retains her seat. No change.
Ohio. How in the world is Mike DeWine going down? I don't know, but I know Sherrod Brown is winning. Dems up three.
New Jersey. I can't believe this, but Menendez is going to lose to Kean. Republicans pick a seat up, but still down two.
Rhode Island. Chafee ends up holding on to the seat despite a big scare. No change.
Arizona. Kyl wins again, no change.
Maryland. I could beef it on this one, but I'm picking Steele. The race is a functional tie, within the margin of error on polls, but the GOP has to have something to hang their hat on. I think it's this one. Republicans now down just one seat.
Tennessee. Harold Ford has been running a phenomenal campaign and has this red state just about ready to vote Democratic. Just about, but not quite. Corker wins, no change.
Missouri. Having lived in Missouri, I know that the state can elect dead men. But Claire McCaskill is no Mel Carnahan. Michael J. Fox helps, but not enough. Talent holds his seat.
Montana. Conrad Burns, the white courtesy phone is ringing. Tester bests him, Democrats now back to two seats up.
Connecticut. Joe Liberman is going to retain his seat, but the big question is this: who is he going to caucus with. I think he's going to pull a Jeffords and caucus with the GOP, since they're going to retain the house.
Virginia. This has been the big race, so it should come last. Allen should have walked away with this one, and it's emblematic of a year when Republicans seemed to lose their way. Macaca aside, Allen should be up twelve on Webb. With party ID on his side, Allen pulls this one out, GOP retains one more seat and loses a total of two seats.

The 110th Congress looks like this:
House: D 217 (including Sanders), R 218.
Senate: D 47 (including Jeffords), R 53.

Here in Kansas, I'm just picking winners:
Governor: Sebelius retains (duh. Hey, Senator Barnett, try raising money next time)
Secretary of State: Thornburgh retains (another no-brainer. Haley, please)
Attorney General: Morrison over Kline. The abortion records controversy just allowed folks who thought Kline was shady in the first place evidence of their belief. Plus, the fundies seem to be having a bad year (see Cauble's School Board win over Morris in the 5th District GOP primary) so Kline suffers.
Treasurer: Jenkins retains, no sweat.
Insurance Commissioner: Who cares? Why in the world do we elect this position in the first place? Praeger retains.
KS Congressional delegation:
All seats retained. Ryun fights off a challenge from Boyda, Moore gets no real challenge from Ahner, Tiahrt and Moran cruise.