Bold Cold Medicine Induced Predictions

Wow, is it election eve already? Must be, because the Daily Show is on full-cynical ahead!

Now that the flu is past, I'm back reading everyone's predictions. Chris Bowers sees a split Senate and a 23-29 seat House pickup. I just don't see it. Note that his method is a probability model based on the different likelihood tiers, but I've never found those as reliable methods. Take the top fifty races and look at them instead. If national trends determined Congressional elections, the probability model might work. But it doesn't. Tom DeLay's seat is going Democratic for different reasons than Sherwood Boehlert's old district is going to be represented by Mike Arcuri. That's not probabilistic, that's an individualistic model.

Radley Balko thinks the Dems will have a 20-25 seat advantage in the House with a 51-49 Senate for the GOP. The mighty mighty Gooch has Republicans holding the House by two seats and the Senate is 53-47 Republican.

But what in the world do I think? Somewhere between the two above. So here goes.

House:
Dems pick up the following seats: AZ 5, 8; CA 11; FL 13, 16; IL 6; IN 2, 8; IA 1; NY 24; OH 2, 15, 18; PA 7, 10. That's a fifteen-seat pickup for the Dems.
Republicans picking up one seat: GA 12.
The result, Republicans maintain the House . . . by a single seat.

Senate:
Pennsylvania. Santorum is going down and going down big. Score one for the Dems.
Minnesota. I remember when Mark Kennedy first ran for the House and wasn't even targeted by the GOP. He won then, but I don't see it happening now. And to make it worse, he's losing to someone named "Klobuchar." Yikes. Dems plus two.
Washington. Maria Cantwell keeps her seat. No change.
Michigan. Debbie Stabenow retains her seat. No change.
Ohio. How in the world is Mike DeWine going down? I don't know, but I know Sherrod Brown is winning. Dems up three.
New Jersey. I can't believe this, but Menendez is going to lose to Kean. Republicans pick a seat up, but still down two.
Rhode Island. Chafee ends up holding on to the seat despite a big scare. No change.
Arizona. Kyl wins again, no change.
Maryland. I could beef it on this one, but I'm picking Steele. The race is a functional tie, within the margin of error on polls, but the GOP has to have something to hang their hat on. I think it's this one. Republicans now down just one seat.
Tennessee. Harold Ford has been running a phenomenal campaign and has this red state just about ready to vote Democratic. Just about, but not quite. Corker wins, no change.
Missouri. Having lived in Missouri, I know that the state can elect dead men. But Claire McCaskill is no Mel Carnahan. Michael J. Fox helps, but not enough. Talent holds his seat.
Montana. Conrad Burns, the white courtesy phone is ringing. Tester bests him, Democrats now back to two seats up.
Connecticut. Joe Liberman is going to retain his seat, but the big question is this: who is he going to caucus with. I think he's going to pull a Jeffords and caucus with the GOP, since they're going to retain the house.
Virginia. This has been the big race, so it should come last. Allen should have walked away with this one, and it's emblematic of a year when Republicans seemed to lose their way. Macaca aside, Allen should be up twelve on Webb. With party ID on his side, Allen pulls this one out, GOP retains one more seat and loses a total of two seats.

The 110th Congress looks like this:
House: D 217 (including Sanders), R 218.
Senate: D 47 (including Jeffords), R 53.

Here in Kansas, I'm just picking winners:
Governor: Sebelius retains (duh. Hey, Senator Barnett, try raising money next time)
Secretary of State: Thornburgh retains (another no-brainer. Haley, please)
Attorney General: Morrison over Kline. The abortion records controversy just allowed folks who thought Kline was shady in the first place evidence of their belief. Plus, the fundies seem to be having a bad year (see Cauble's School Board win over Morris in the 5th District GOP primary) so Kline suffers.
Treasurer: Jenkins retains, no sweat.
Insurance Commissioner: Who cares? Why in the world do we elect this position in the first place? Praeger retains.
KS Congressional delegation:
All seats retained. Ryun fights off a challenge from Boyda, Moore gets no real challenge from Ahner, Tiahrt and Moran cruise.